Benefica Insights — Latest Research & Analysis

Country Risk Assessment

FISCAL DEFICIT

Budget balance to GDP

Danger: -4.00%
Desired: -2.00%
Current: -1.22%

FDI / GDP

Foreign direct investment to GDP

Danger: 2.00%
Desired: 5.00%
Current: 4.40%

FDI SHARE OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

FDI share of current account deficit

Danger: 50.00%
Desired: 100.00%
Current: 169.97%

CURRENCY STABILITY

Real effective exchange rate, size of annual swing

Danger: 15.00%
Desired: 5.00%
Current: 3.40%

ECONOMIC GROWTH

Real GDP growth, quarterly

Danger: 4.00%
Desired: 6.00%
Current: 8.95%

BANKING SECTOR HEALTH

Non-performing loans ratio

Danger: 5.00%
Desired: 2.00%
Current: 2.54%

COMPETITIVENESS

Current account balance to GDP, trailing year

Danger: -4.00%
Desired: -1.00%
Current: -1.82%

LIQUIDITY

Reserves to short-term external debt

Danger: 1.00
Desired: 2.00
Current: 0.84

EXTERNAL DEBT

Net external debt to GDP

Danger: 50.00%
Desired: 25.00%
Current: 31.75%

Country Risk Profile — Georgia, first quarter 2026 10 Sept 2026 Country Risk Profile — Georgia: strong flows, thin reserve cover 10 Aug 2026

Prices & Inflation

Annual inflation

5.6% ▲

Core inflation

3.8% ▲

Food inflation

5.0% ▲

Housing inflation

8.5% ▲

Batumi inflation reaches 7.4% while Tbilisi eases to 5.3% 12 Aug 2026 Inflation eases to 5.5% while housing and utility costs accelerate 12 Aug 2026

Growth & Output

Real GDP growth

9.0% ▲

GDP per capita

10,297 ▲

Output gap

6.04% ▲

Savings rate

18.00% ▼

Real GDP growth accelerates to 9.0% while construction contracts 12 Aug 2026 Prices accounted for 4.6 points of Georgia's 2025 GDP expansion 12 Aug 2026 Construction contracts as first-quarter growth accelerates to 9.0% 12 Aug 2026

Banking & Credit

Loan dollarization

40.85% ▼

FX-adjusted loan growth (M-o-M)

0.96%

Deposit dollarization

47.70% ▼

Non-performing loans

2.54% ▲

Lari lending carries July loan growth as the foreign-currency book shrinks 06 Sept 2026 Loan dollarization falls to 40.85%, extending a multi-year decline 06 Sept 2026 Lari lending lifts the July loan book as the foreign-currency stock falls 31 Aug 2026

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Loan dollarization falls to 40.85% as lari lending carries loan growth 31 Aug 2026 Loan dollarization eases to 41.34% as lari lending outpaces foreign currency 12 Aug 2026 June lari lending rises to 6238.6 million GEL, a third consecutive monthly increase 12 Aug 2026

Monetary Policy

Policy rate

8.25% ●

Real policy rate

4.00% ▼

International reserves

8,140.5 ▲

Taylor Rule implied rate

9.52% ▲

Policy rate held at 8.25% for a third consecutive decision 10 Sept 2026 NBG holds at 8.25% for a third consecutive decision as inflation eases to 5.5% 31 Aug 2026

External Sector

FDI to GDP

4.40% ▼

External debt to GDP

31.75% ▼

Current account to GDP

-1.82% ▲

Reserves coverage

0.84 ▼

Foreign direct investment returned to growth in 2025, but its share of GDP kept falling 12 Aug 2026 Georgia's short-term external debt: banks now carry nearly three quarters of it 12 Aug 2026

Labour Market

Real wage growth

3.36% ▼

Unemployment rate

13.90% ●

Nominal wage growth

7.67% ▼

Labour force participation

40.95% ▼

Real wage growth halves as inflation picks up 12 Aug 2026

Exchange Rates

US dollar

2.6101 ▼

Euro

3.0342 ▼

Turkish lira

0.0538 ●

Russian rouble

3.1036 ▲

Rouble is the clearest mover against the lari; dollar barely budges 29 Aug 2026 Rouble and dram lead the moves against the lari; dollar and manat barely shift 12 Aug 2026 Rouble the largest mover against the lari; euro and dollar barely change 12 Aug 2026

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Rouble slips against the lari; dollar and euro hold near their start-of-week levels 08 Aug 2026

Weekly Digest

Weekly digest: lari firms, inflation at 5.5%, growth at 9.0% 30 Aug 2026 Inflation eases to 5.5% while first-quarter growth runs at 9.0% 12 Aug 2026

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