The National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy rate at 8.25% on 9 September, the same level set at the decisions of 17 June and 29 July. Annual inflation has moved little over that stretch: 5.8% in June, 5.5% in July and 5.6% in August, a rise of 0.1 percentage points in the most recent month.
The longer view is where the tension sits. The real interest rate, the policy rate less inflation, was 4.00% in 2025, after 6.10% in 2024 and 9.10% in 2023, so the effective stance has loosened substantially even in periods when the nominal rate did not move. The Taylor Rule implied rate, an estimate, points the other way: 9.52% for 2025 against 5.33% in 2024 and 1.15% in 2023.
That leaves the estimated rule-implied rate for 2025 above the 8.25% in force at each of the decisions shown, having sat well below the corresponding level in 2024 and 2023. The rule is a benchmark rather than a mandate, but the sign of the gap has reversed, and it is the more informative thing to track into the next decision than an unchanged headline rate.
Figures in this post
Every number below was checked against the source before publication.
CPI_YOY_MAnnual inflation National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat)POLICY_RATE_DMonetary policy rate, per decision National Bank of GeorgiaREAL_INTEREST_RATE_AReal interest rate (policy rate less inflation) Computed from other indicators’ stored observationsTAYLOR_RULE_RATE_ATaylor Rule implied policy rate Computed from other indicators’ stored observations