The National Bank of Georgia left its monetary policy rate at 8.25% on 21 October, the third consecutive decision at that level after 29 July and 9 September. Annual inflation has been close to flat over the same stretch — 5.8% in June, 5.5% in July and 5.6% in August — leaving the policy rate 2.65 percentage points above the most recent inflation reading.
The Taylor Rule comparison runs the other way. The implied rate is estimated at 9.52% for 2025, after 5.33% in 2024 and 1.15% in 2023, which places the current setting 1.27 percentage points below the 2025 estimate. The realised real interest rate has moved in the opposite direction, easing to 4.00% in 2025 from 6.10% in 2024 and 9.10% in 2023.
Taken together, the three decisions describe a holding pattern rather than a direction, and nothing in the inflation readings shown argues for an urgent move either way.
Figures in this post
Every number below was checked against the source before publication.
CPI_YOY_MAnnual inflation National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat)POLICY_RATE_DMonetary policy rate, per decision National Bank of GeorgiaREAL_INTEREST_RATE_AReal interest rate (policy rate less inflation) Computed from other indicators’ stored observationsTAYLOR_RULE_RATE_ATaylor Rule implied policy rate Computed from other indicators’ stored observations