FISCAL DEFICIT
- Danger threshold
- -4.00%
- Desired threshold
- -2.00%
- Current level
- -1.22% (2025)
The budget balance to GDP stood at -1.22% in 2025, inside the -2.00% level this profile treats as desirable and a long way from the -4.00% danger line. A deficit of that size leaves debt dynamics largely insensitive to one weak year of revenue or activity, and holding the position requires no fiscal tightening. It is among the least demanding readings in the profile: the open question is whether the balance holds, not what it would take to repair it. On this measure the sovereign's financing choices are unconstrained.
FDI / GDP
- Danger threshold
- 2.00%
- Desired threshold
- 5.00%
- Current level
- 4.40% (2025)
Foreign direct investment to GDP was 4.40% in 2025, more than double the 2.00% danger threshold but short of the 5.00% desired mark by less than a percentage point. At that level inflows are a meaningful source of external financing without being a comfortable one, and a single weak year would narrow the margin quickly. The reading sits in the middle band, which in practice calls for monitoring rather than action. It should be read alongside the financing panel, because these are the same inflows that cover the external gap.
FDI SHARE OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
- Danger threshold
- 50.00%
- Desired threshold
- 100.00%
- Current level
- 150.63% (2025)
Foreign direct investment covered 150.63% of the current account deficit in 2025, half again as much as the whole deficit and well past both the 100.00% desired mark and the 50.00% danger line. The practical reading is that the external gap was financed by equity rather than by new borrowing, which is the form of financing that never has to be rolled over. With the current account at -2.02% of GDP on a trailing-year basis to the first quarter of 2026 and inflows at 4.40% of GDP in 2025, the two panels are arithmetically consistent. This is the strongest reading in the profile.
CURRENCY STABILITY
- Danger threshold
- 15.00%
- Desired threshold
- 5.00%
- Current level
- 3.40% (2025)
The size of the annual swing in the real effective exchange rate was 3.40% in 2025, inside the 5.00% desired limit and far below the 15.00% danger level. For exporters and importers that means the real price terms on which they competed shifted little across the year, and hedging a lari exposure cost correspondingly less. The measure captures the magnitude of the swing and not its direction, so it says nothing about whether the currency gained or lost in real terms. On this dimension the profile requires no attention.
ECONOMIC GROWTH
- Danger threshold
- 4.00%
- Desired threshold
- 6.00%
- Current level
- 8.95% (Q1 2026)
Real GDP growth was 8.95% in the first quarter of 2026, above the 6.00% desired threshold and well clear of the 4.00% floor below which growth itself becomes a risk factor. The figure is provisional and Geostat revises recent quarters, so the margin above the threshold may move. It compares the quarter with the same quarter a year earlier, and a single quarter is not a trend. Output is also the denominator in several of the ratios shown here, so a revision would feed through to them as well.
BANKING SECTOR HEALTH
- Danger threshold
- 5.00%
- Desired threshold
- 2.00%
- Current level
- 2.54% (2025)
The non-performing loans ratio was 2.54% in 2025, far below the 5.00% danger level but above the 2.00% level this profile treats as desirable. Asset quality is therefore sound rather than pristine, and the distance to the danger line is wide enough that a deterioration would have to be substantial before it threatened capital. The reading places banking sector health in the middle band: it is neither a present constraint on credit supply nor a clean bill of health. Lenders should read it as a normal cyclical level rather than an early warning.
COMPETITIVENESS
- Danger threshold
- -4.00%
- Desired threshold
- -1.00%
- Current level
- -2.02% (Q1 2026)
The current account balance was -2.02% of GDP on a trailing-year basis to the first quarter of 2026, between the -1.00% desired mark and the -4.00% danger line. A gap of that size is modest for an economy growing at the rate the growth panel shows, and it is well within the range that direct investment alone has financed. The caveat is that the ratio rests in part on provisional recent output data and can move with revisions. The size of the external gap therefore sits in the middle band, while the funding side of the same gap reads strongly.
LIQUIDITY
- Danger threshold
- 1.00
- Desired threshold
- 2.00
- Current level
- 0.93 (Q2 2026)
Reserves covered 0.93 of short-term external debt in the second quarter of 2026, below the 1.00 line, which means official reserves do not fully cover external obligations falling due within a year, and far from the 2.00 cover this profile treats as comfortable. This is the only reading in the profile at or past its danger threshold, and it is where attention belongs. The risk it describes is refinancing timing rather than solvency: the debt stock is moderate and the external gap is equity-financed, but cover below one leaves little room if a rollover window tightens or reserves are drawn on for other purposes. Treasurers with foreign-currency liabilities maturing inside a year should price that thinner buffer rather than assume it.
EXTERNAL DEBT
- Danger threshold
- 50.00%
- Desired threshold
- 25.00%
- Current level
- 29.89% (Q2 2026)
Net external debt was 29.89% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, well inside the 50.00% danger level and above the 25.00% desired mark. The stock itself is moderate: at this level debt service is manageable and the quantity owed does not by itself limit access to external markets. Read together with reserve cover of 0.93, the issue in the external accounts is maturity structure rather than quantity, because the problem is not how much is owed but how much of it is owed soon. As with the other quarterly ratios here, the GDP denominator is provisional and subject to revision.
Risk profile conclusion
Georgia's risk profile is sound on the slow-moving measures and strained on the fast-moving one. The fiscal position at -1.22% of GDP, the real exchange rate swing of 3.40%, provisional growth of 8.95% and equity financing equal to 150.63% of the current account deficit all sit at or past their desired thresholds. Investment inflows of 4.40% of GDP, a non-performing loans ratio of 2.54%, a current account gap of -2.02% of GDP and net external debt of 29.89% of GDP occupy the middle band: none is a present constraint, all are worth tracking quarter to quarter. The exception is reserve cover of short-term external debt at 0.93, the only reading at its danger threshold, and it describes liquidity rather than solvency. An economy whose external gap is more than fully covered by equity inflows and whose net external debt stock is moderate does not have a balance-sheet problem; it has a timing problem. For anyone with refinancing needs in the coming year, that is the figure in this profile to watch.